When the NBA calendar pushes to June, only two teams can think about playing basketball. The rest, along with their fanbases, have already pivoted to a more distant future.
At OSDB Sports, we’ve assessed all 30 franchises based on their prospective futures. From the most promising to the road going nowhere. Think long term with this list. What will your franchise look like four years from today? The three criteria for our rankings are current roster, youth potential (players 25 years old or younger), the franchise’s draft capital (calculated through 2029) and the intangibles (proficiency of the front office, ownership, age/contract status of stars on roster, attractiveness to free agents and stability of the coach).
For the intangibles category, we assign a 1 through 10 score rather than a ranking. Call it the culture score.
We’ll start with the team with the brightest future:
1. OKC Thunder (73 points)
Current roster rank: 22nd
Youth potential: 2nd (Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Josh Giddey, Chet Holmgren).
Draft capital rank: 3 (Includes 12th overall this year).
Culture score: 7
The rebuild took a major step forward last season with Gilgeous-Alexander emerging as a star and the Thunder creeping into the play-in tournament. Stockpiled with draft assets and young talent, OKC is set up for a promising future. The big question: Can the small-market franchise keep its players once contracts start running out?
2. Miami Heat (72 points)
Current roster rank: 3rd
Youth potential: 9th (Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro).
Draft capital rank: 19th (Includes 18th overall this year)
Culture score: 10
Heat culture is a real thing. They have the best coach of their generation, Erik Spoelstra, and an uncanny ability to groom castaway players into contributors on a contender. Free agents will always sign up for South Beach and Adebayo is a future superstar. But there’s the question about Jimmy Butler: at 33 years old, how much longer can you rely on his playoff heroics?
3. Memphis Grizzlies (71 points)
Current roster rank: 8th
Youth potential: 1st (Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr.)
Draft capital rank: 17th (Includes 25th overall this year).
Culture score: 1
Overall maturity issues and Morant’s impending suspension for gun-toting made this a difficult ranking. But facts remain: the young core carried the Grizzlies to 51 wins last season and the front office built this roster without dealing any first-round picks.
4. Utah Jazz (67 points)
Current roster rank: 8th
Youth potential: 6th (Lauri Markkannen, Collin Sexton, Walker Kessler)
Draft capital rank: 2nd (Includes 9th overall this year)
Culture score: 5
Danny Ainge has demonstrated an aptitude for building contenders, and he has accumulated a treasure chest of assets by unloading Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. As a bonus, Lauri Markkannen became an All-Star. The problem is there’s often a short shelf life in Utah. The stars usually leave.
5. Boston Celtics (66 points)
Current roster rank: 4th
Youth potential: 8th (Jayson Tatum)
Draft capital rank: 21st.
Culture score: 6
Tatum is a potential MVP and Celtics are historically put together. But currently there are major concerns about the futures of two free agents – Tatum and Jaylen Brown – along with a rookie head coach, Joe Mazzulla, who looked overmatched in the playoffs.
6. New York Knicks (62 points)
Current roster rank: 12th
Youth potential: 15th (RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Mitchell Robinson)
Draft capital rank: 8th.
Culture score: 4
At least the illusion of stability at coach with Tom Thibodeau but the Knicks under James Dolan haven’t shown much patience. Team president Leon Rose has been patient and successful in building in increments, producing the franchise’s first playoff series victory in a decade.
7. San Antonio Spurs (60 points)
Current roster rank: 28th
Young core potential: 13th (Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Tre Jones, Jeremy Sochan)
Draft capital rank: 1st (Includes 1st overall this year)
Culture score: 9
Winning the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes gives the Spurs the top ranking in draft capital by far. They have a proven coach (Gregg Popovich) and GM (RC Buford). There are the bones of another dynastic run. A big question is how much longer before the 74-year-old Popovich retires.
8. Denver Nuggets (60 points)
Current roster rank: 1st
Youth potential: 17th (Michael Porter Jr.)
Draft capital rank: 25th (4 first-round picks through 2029).
Culture score: 10
Stability everywhere in this organization and a two-time MVP, Nikola Jokic, who has remained healthy. What’s not to like? Received a lower score than deserved here because technically Jokic and Jamal Murray are older than the 25 cutoff for our young core category.
9. Sacramento Kings (59 points)
Current roster rank: 13th
Youth potential: 3rd (De’Aaron Fox, Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk).
Draft capital rank: 22nd (Includes 24th overall this year).
Culture score: 4
Emerged as the best surprise story of the season behind Fox, Domantas Sabonis and Coach of the Year Mike Brown. The good young core still missing the superstar to put them over the top. At the same time, they’re the Kings. And they have to prove themselves as functional for more than one season before we go crazy.
10. Orlando Magic (58 points)
Current roster rank: 27th
Youth potential: 5th (Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs).
Draft capital rank: 6th (Includes 6th overall this year)
Culture score: 3
Banchero showed great promise as the Rookie of the Year and his Magic improved as the season progressed. Still waiting for the franchise to show signs of life, however. It feels like Orlando has been rebuilding since trading Dwight Howard over a decade ago.
11. Indiana Pacers (57 points)
Current roster rank: 25th
Youth potential: 7th (Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin)
Draft Capital rank: 9th (Includes 7th overall this year)
Culture score: 5
Solid playmaking All-Star in Haliburton, proven coach in Rick Carlisle and a trove of rebuilding assets. The franchise is certainly on an upward trajectory after three straight years out of the playoffs.
12. Cleveland Cavaliers (57 points)
Current roster rank: 11th
Youth potential: 4th (Darius Garland, Evan Mobley)
Draft capital rank: 28th
Culture score: 7
Add in Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers have a solid young foundation. The problem projecting forward is acquiring Mitchell cost them most of their future picks.
13. Toronto Raptors (56 points)
Current roster rank: 20th
Youth potential: 12th (OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr.)
Draft capital rank: 13th (Includes 13th overall pick this year).
Culture score: 8
The Raptors are teetering between attempting to contend and rebuilding. That’s not a great position but few people know how to navigate the NBA terrain than Toronto top executive Masai Ujiri. Current head coaching vacancy leaves more questions.
14. New Orleans Pelicans (54 points)
Current roster rank: 19th
Youth potential: 19th (Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III)
Draft capital rank: 4th (Includes 14th overall pick this year).
Culture score: 3
The future is tied to the health of Zion Williamson, and therefore a crapshoot. The Pelicans are flush with assets but it’s tough sledding in a market that doesn’t support its team.
15. Atlanta Hawks (52 points)
Current roster rank: 17th
Youth potential: 11th (Trae Young, DeAndre Hunter, John Collins)
Draft capital rank: 17th (Includes 15th overall pick this year)
Culture score: 4
Fired their coach midseason and hired Quin Snyder, with the idea the veteran sideline manager will provide stability. The big question is whether Trae Young is a worthy franchise player, or if they’re better off sending him elsewhere or diminishing his role.
16. Golden State Warriors (51 points)
Current roster rank: 7th
Youth potential: 23rd (Jordan Poole)
Draft capital rank: 20th (Includes 19th overall pick this year)
Culture score: 8
Dynastic core is already past its prime and GM Bob Myers is on the way out. But they’ve maintained draft picks and the owner is willing to spend whatever it takes.
17. Brooklyn Nets (50 points)
Current roster rank: 16th
Youth potential: 18th (Nic Claxton)
Draft capital: 12th (includes 21st and 22nd picks this year).
Culture score: 3
Flubbed the Kevin Durant-Kyrie Irving era beyond belief, and Sean Marks now has to rebuild again. Luckily, he recouped a lot of draft picks by trading the two stars. Coming off two highly dysfunctional seasons.
18. Detroit Pistons (47 points)
Current roster rank: 29th
Youth potential: 10th (Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart)
Draft capital rank: 11th (Includes 5th overall pick this year)
Culture score: 4
Rebuild has included lots of losing but a stockpile of young players. We’re not sure if any of them are any good yet, but Cunningham demonstrated the most potential before his injury.
19. Dallas Mavericks (47 points)
Current roster rank: 14tth
Youth potential: 20th (Luka Doncic).
Draft capital rank: 15th (Includes 15th overall this year)
Culture score: 4
Doncic is a top-10 player and that’s always a great start. After him, however, it gets dicey. And they squandered assets to acquire Kyrie Irving for no reason.
20. Los Angeles Lakers (47 points)
Current roster rank: 9th
Youth potential: 29th (Austin Reaves)
Draft capital rank: 18th (Includes 17th overall pick this year).
Culture score: 10
LeBron James doesn’t have much left and the cap situation isn’t pretty. But they’re the Lakers, the league’s marquee franchise. Stars find ways to play for the league’s marquee franchise.
21. Houston Rockets (46 points)
Current roster rank: 30th
Youth potential: 16th (Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Draft capital rank: 5th (Includes 4th overall pick this year)
Culture score: 4
Just hired a new coach who was fired from his previous job because of an improper sexual relationship with a team employee. GM Rafael Stone started the rebuild but hasn’t made good draft choices.
22. Portland Trail Blazers (43 points)
Current roster rank: 24th
Youth potential: 21st (Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe).
Draft capital rank: 10th (Includes 5th overall pick this year).
Culture score: 5
Faced with an important decision on whether to continue to build around Dame Lillard or trade the point guard to start over.
23. Milwaukee Bucks (42 points)
Current roster rank: 2nd
Youth potential: 28th
Draft capital rank: 27th
Culture score: 7
Still have the greatest player on the planet, Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the window is closing on his supporting cast without many assets to recoup.
24. Los Angeles Clippers (40 points)
Current roster rank: 6th
Youth potential rank: 30th
Draft capital rank: 24th (Including 30th overall this year).
Culture score: 8
The persistent injuries to Kawhi Leonard have re-imagined the possibilities for this franchise. They went all-in with this group and it hasn’t produced. On the plus-side, owner Steve Ballmer is immensely wealthy and will open his wallet.
25. Charlotte Hornets (39 points)
Current roster rank: 26th
Youth potential: 22nd (LaMelo Ball, PJ Washington)
Draft capital rank: 7th (Includes 2nd overall pick this year).
Culture score: 1
The second overall pick could net the franchise a real difference maker, but it’s hardly a given like Wembanyama. In the meantime, the Hornets haven’t been able to get anything going with Michael Jordan as the owner.
26. Minnesota Timberwolves (38 points)
Current roster rank: 15th
Youth potential: 14th (Anthony Edwards)
Draft capital rank: 29th
Culture score: 3
Exhausted future draft picks to acquire Rudy Gobert, and that didn’t work out. There’s still a path to high-level success if Edwards continues to ascend, Karl Anthony Towns regroups and Gobert jells. Just can’t count on draft picks moving forward.
27. Washington Wizards (38 points)
Current roster rank: 21st
Youth potential: 24th (Corey Kispert)
Draft capital rank: 14th (Includes 8th overall pick this year).
Culture score: 3
Stuck in the middle with a huge payout owed to Bradley Beal. Big summer decisions on free agents Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma are also forthcoming. Hard to see Washington’s path to contention.
28. Phoenix Suns (36 points)
Current roster rank: 5th
Youth potential: 27th (DeAndre Ayton)
Draft capital rank: 30th
Culture score: 5
Trading their picks for Kevin Durant and a second-round exit. Now they better win a title next year or it’s a big waste because there isn’t much of a future on this roster after Devin Booker.
29. Philadelphia 76ers (36 points)
Current roster rank: 10th
Youth potential: 26th (Tyrese Maxey).
Draft capital rank: 26th
Culture score: 5
Pushed in the chips for James Harden and now may lose him in free agency. Joel Embiid is the reigning MVP and still in his prime at 30 years old, but his knees won’t age well. Bleak long-term future for Philly.
30. Chicago Bulls (33 points)
Current roster rank: 18th
Youth potential: 25th (Patrick Williams)
Draft capital rank: 23rd
Culture score: 6
Losing Lonzo Ball to his injuries proved devastating, which underscored how fragile a team around Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan can be. They’re not winning a championship with the current roster so trading off pieces is the best course of action.
